18 Comments

Plenty of chatter at the minute about German deindustrialisation. Perhaps it's an opportunity to retool rather than shutter its industrial sector?

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Totally on board with what you say Phiiip. Rutte is a plain-speaking Dutchman and I wish Europe had more leaders like him (Tusk is another admirable pan-European). I constantly read of analogies made to the 1930s and much as I feel there is value in the historical (near-) parallel, I do wonder what is today's "Munich" equivalence, as that failure truly galvanized the public consciousness as to Hitler's real threat to Europe (and belatedly in Britain the need for another Continental Commitment). Certainly in our era our 'Munich' is not Crimea 2014. Could it be Putin's Feb 2022 invasion of Ukraine? That's not so clear. As I see it Europe's public (Baltics and Poland excepted) is lagging well behind their leaders in taking the existential threat so seriously that they support bigger defence spending. The Gen Z'ers especially. So what else is needed as a wake up call to get the public behind their leaders and fully support 'pre-war' planning? What is your view on this?

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Excellent as always thank you

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Feb 19Liked by Philip Stephens

Heard the former Estonian PM on the radio suggesting that if NATO/EU members looked to really commit to 0.3% of GDP towards support for Ukraine, that the outspend would do for Putin pretty handily.

You don’t want to be sat in fifteen years trying to remember what it was that emboldened Putin to claw back parts of the former USSR.

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I didn't attend or read full transcripts, but on France 24 I saw and heard Scholz making a very similar remark to the Rutte quote. As I recall, he said that Europe has to take responsibility for its own defence and make a commitment to ramping up defence spending. There was also reference, I think by him, to an EU industrial policy for defence. (Echoing Junker.) It can't be ignored that with Europe's slow growth rate and pressure already on social budgets, this will be a difficult and painful path to follow.

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Feb 19Liked by Philip Stephens

"[The EU] spend half as much as the United States but even then we only achieve 15% of their efficiency [because] around 80% of defence procurement, and 90% of research and technology investment, is done at national level with no coordination between the Member States of the European Union. [___] There are 178 – as the Prime Minister said – different weapon systems in the EU, compared to 30 in the U.S. We allow ourselves the luxury of having 17 different types of combat tanks while the United States is able to manage perfectly well with just one model."

'Speech by President Jean-Claude Juncker at the Defence and Security Conference Prague: In defence of Europe', 9 June 2017, at https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/SPEECH_17_1581

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Great to see Denmark step out and take a lead

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Yes. Spot on. I’ve been pondering this question - thinking for ourselves or growing up as Kant would have it. It’s time

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Feb 18Liked by Philip Stephens

Glad you highlighted what Rutte had to say Stephen. Ireland in particular cannot continue to free ride on defence expenditure in other countries.

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Feb 18Liked by Philip Stephens

Let Europe buy the American weapons for Ukraine

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Feb 18Liked by Philip Stephens

Spot on, as usual. The echoes of the 1930s are eerily close. Hand-wringing and hoping Uncle Sam will protect us are just futile. I do not agree Biden will win again so we have to step up, pay up and arm up. Watch out Europe - Baltic states or Balkans next.

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Ditto Steve. The way I put it: Europe’ problem is nit Trump. It’s Putin. And the solution starts in Ukraine

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'Putin, fresh from his military’s, albeit costly, success in retaking Avdiivka, has no interest in considering a settlement before the November election' Success? Come on, a non strategic rubble?

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