As always Philip an insightful piece with a healthy dose of realism. One of the many challenges is for the so called West to stand firm and begin to imagine a world order that frames the conflict with the nationalist dictatorships in China, Russia and elsewhere. This requires some stability in the USA and key nations such as France. It also requires a conversation with generations that do not remember the Cold War; those that have grown up assuming trade stops conflict and have no reference for a multi polar world.
All true. But if Ukraine defeats Putin comprehensively, as I hope it does, there's a good chance Russian elites will remove him from power; he may then stand trial for war crimes; and then there may not be a need for a new containment.
I hope it works out your way, as you suggested, My personal concern is that there can only be real peace with Putin gone, but would a Putin, on the loosing side, be tempted to trigger a nuclear war and who would stop him? He has nothing left to loose.
Excellent piece. I agree on more arms, less energy and more NATO. What’s less clear is a mechanism for a Russian climb down and how to prevent an escalation when or if Putin has his back to the wall militarily.
Putin has total control over the Russian media. He can invent any climb down for himself any time he wants to. There is no need for the West or Ukraine to give him real victories to trumpet when he is fully capable of trumpeting fake victories.
"We have destroyed all of Ukraine's nuclear weapons, all of their chemical weapons labs, and completely destroyed their biological program. All the Azov Nazi mutant X-men are dead. Mission accomplished"
This is the main part of a letter I had published in the Irish Times today Stephen. Thanks for another fine article. John
Suspending energy imports from Russia will certainly hit living standards in European countries, possibly leading to an overall fall of five per cent or more. Compare this though to the predicted forty per cent fall in Ukrainian GDP this year, the loss of tens of thousands of lives, a multiple of this injured and/or brutally assaulted and the destruction of the physical infrastructure which will take decades to restore.
There is already a hit to living standards arising from higher energy prices, and this will worsen considerably in the event of a ban on all energy imports from Russia. How the loss will impact different socioeconomic groups is something the political system can influence, but not the scale of the overall loss.
This is a reality we must live with and accept. Unless we want to condone, implicitly, the horrors already inflicted on Ukraine. And close our eyes to the danger that this nightmare scenario could extend, in time, to the rest of Europe.
As always Philip an insightful piece with a healthy dose of realism. One of the many challenges is for the so called West to stand firm and begin to imagine a world order that frames the conflict with the nationalist dictatorships in China, Russia and elsewhere. This requires some stability in the USA and key nations such as France. It also requires a conversation with generations that do not remember the Cold War; those that have grown up assuming trade stops conflict and have no reference for a multi polar world.
All true. But if Ukraine defeats Putin comprehensively, as I hope it does, there's a good chance Russian elites will remove him from power; he may then stand trial for war crimes; and then there may not be a need for a new containment.
hope so
👍
I hope it works out your way, as you suggested, My personal concern is that there can only be real peace with Putin gone, but would a Putin, on the loosing side, be tempted to trigger a nuclear war and who would stop him? He has nothing left to loose.
Nothing can be certain but to he held hostage to such a possibility is to accept defeat on just about everything
Philip, it is not a case of being held hostage, but to recognise that possibility and seek to counteract it, by whatever means possible.
Excellent piece. I agree on more arms, less energy and more NATO. What’s less clear is a mechanism for a Russian climb down and how to prevent an escalation when or if Putin has his back to the wall militarily.
Thank you. I think even Putin is constrained by military realities.
Putin has total control over the Russian media. He can invent any climb down for himself any time he wants to. There is no need for the West or Ukraine to give him real victories to trumpet when he is fully capable of trumpeting fake victories.
"We have destroyed all of Ukraine's nuclear weapons, all of their chemical weapons labs, and completely destroyed their biological program. All the Azov Nazi mutant X-men are dead. Mission accomplished"
This is the main part of a letter I had published in the Irish Times today Stephen. Thanks for another fine article. John
Suspending energy imports from Russia will certainly hit living standards in European countries, possibly leading to an overall fall of five per cent or more. Compare this though to the predicted forty per cent fall in Ukrainian GDP this year, the loss of tens of thousands of lives, a multiple of this injured and/or brutally assaulted and the destruction of the physical infrastructure which will take decades to restore.
There is already a hit to living standards arising from higher energy prices, and this will worsen considerably in the event of a ban on all energy imports from Russia. How the loss will impact different socioeconomic groups is something the political system can influence, but not the scale of the overall loss.
This is a reality we must live with and accept. Unless we want to condone, implicitly, the horrors already inflicted on Ukraine. And close our eyes to the danger that this nightmare scenario could extend, in time, to the rest of Europe.
Absolutely agree!
Sorry, Philip. I have used Stephen again!