An excellent and welcome discussion, at important juncture, 100 years on from partition and one year on from Brexit. Irish Unification is highly complex. Frank Schnittger discusses this complexity at www.eurotrib.com."United Ireland - a marriage of give and take?" As he advises
"Unlike the UK we [Ireland] do not vote on a broad principle like Brexit, we vote for very precise changes to our Constitution, the implications of which have been spelled out by an independent referendum commission.
Such a constitutional referendum can only be called after the north has voted for unification, and its precise form will be determined by the debate that has taken place in Northern Ireland prior to their vote. People in the south may well decide that the costs of reunification, the risks of violence, and the compromises contained in any reunification proposal are simply not worth it".
For NI and Ireland to have any chance of agreement on re-unification, it will require very full details of the costs, relationships and operation of that unified state to be spelt out __before__ any vote on either side of the border.
Well argued, Philip. One question that occurs to me is how much more damage irredentist Ulster unionists can do to UK politics and foreign policy before Ireland ultimately unites. Food for another column one day?
Thanks for this paul...and yes. could do lot of damage - at very least in preventing any normalising of relations with EU 27.....that's why Truss needs to do a deal on Protocol asap.
Membership of the EU was providing a sensible umbrella for the GFA to evolve and develop. It also meant those born in one place and living in another were quite happy as citizens of nowhere and everywhere at the same.
I doubt Boris Johnson's Englishness reaches too far north of the home counties.
The most immediate need I think is to accurately portray that the new checks in Calais and with more to come inbound and outbound means the checks into NI will not appear too different.
The equivalence of inconvenience and incremental costs been sought by the DUP will emerge soon enough for Liz Truss to claim a very peculiar but very Johsonesque 'victory'. 'No worse than Calais' is all that is needed for the DUP to be happy.
Michael Collins knew it was a 3-way 'negotiations' with de rug-pulling Valera staying in Dublin and Lloyd George (along with Churchill) 'threatening' violent repression in Ireland if their highway wasn't the road taken: the Tory Aristocracy were far more powerful - in whole UK - than today. The nuances that were core to the Good Friday Agreement (signed in 1998 but still a work in progress) stand apart from both the 1921 Treaty and the Brexit / Protocol document (disingenuously) signed by Frost in December 2021 (Ian Paisley Jnr telling Newsnight's Nick Watt that 'Boris Johnson told him he was going to tear up the Protocol after signing it).
Might be of interest to you that Fine Gael is holding (private) events during 2022 on these topics. A Virtual Seminar on the 7th of January at 7.30pm covers the 100 year anniversary of the ratification of the Anglo-Irish Treaty by the Dáil with a lecture on “The Treaty Debates" by Professor Michael Laffan and Special Guests including Dr. Mel Farrell and opened with a speech from Tánaiste, Leo Varadkar. It's something that goes right to the core of Brexit particularly the Northern Ireland Protocol which built on the all Anglo-Irish talks and agreements that have occurred since 1921 - maybe Fine Gael or Michael Laffan will include you for 'considered briefing purposes' - if it's of further interest?
Thank you for these thoughts.. much appreciated. I am not sure I could make the event on 7th Jan but I will try to get on the Fine Gael list for future events. If you could suggest a contact my direct email is philip@philipstephens.net
Riddle me this.... why should 50% +1 in favor of unity be regarded as “not bestowing legitimacy” on UI, but 50%+1 in favor of staying in the UK would be totally legit?
An excellent and welcome discussion, at important juncture, 100 years on from partition and one year on from Brexit. Irish Unification is highly complex. Frank Schnittger discusses this complexity at www.eurotrib.com."United Ireland - a marriage of give and take?" As he advises
"Unlike the UK we [Ireland] do not vote on a broad principle like Brexit, we vote for very precise changes to our Constitution, the implications of which have been spelled out by an independent referendum commission.
Such a constitutional referendum can only be called after the north has voted for unification, and its precise form will be determined by the debate that has taken place in Northern Ireland prior to their vote. People in the south may well decide that the costs of reunification, the risks of violence, and the compromises contained in any reunification proposal are simply not worth it".
For NI and Ireland to have any chance of agreement on re-unification, it will require very full details of the costs, relationships and operation of that unified state to be spelt out __before__ any vote on either side of the border.
Well argued, Philip. One question that occurs to me is how much more damage irredentist Ulster unionists can do to UK politics and foreign policy before Ireland ultimately unites. Food for another column one day?
Thanks for this paul...and yes. could do lot of damage - at very least in preventing any normalising of relations with EU 27.....that's why Truss needs to do a deal on Protocol asap.
Membership of the EU was providing a sensible umbrella for the GFA to evolve and develop. It also meant those born in one place and living in another were quite happy as citizens of nowhere and everywhere at the same.
I doubt Boris Johnson's Englishness reaches too far north of the home counties.
The most immediate need I think is to accurately portray that the new checks in Calais and with more to come inbound and outbound means the checks into NI will not appear too different.
The equivalence of inconvenience and incremental costs been sought by the DUP will emerge soon enough for Liz Truss to claim a very peculiar but very Johsonesque 'victory'. 'No worse than Calais' is all that is needed for the DUP to be happy.
Thank you!
I agree with Martin Wolf !
Michael Collins knew it was a 3-way 'negotiations' with de rug-pulling Valera staying in Dublin and Lloyd George (along with Churchill) 'threatening' violent repression in Ireland if their highway wasn't the road taken: the Tory Aristocracy were far more powerful - in whole UK - than today. The nuances that were core to the Good Friday Agreement (signed in 1998 but still a work in progress) stand apart from both the 1921 Treaty and the Brexit / Protocol document (disingenuously) signed by Frost in December 2021 (Ian Paisley Jnr telling Newsnight's Nick Watt that 'Boris Johnson told him he was going to tear up the Protocol after signing it).
Might be of interest to you that Fine Gael is holding (private) events during 2022 on these topics. A Virtual Seminar on the 7th of January at 7.30pm covers the 100 year anniversary of the ratification of the Anglo-Irish Treaty by the Dáil with a lecture on “The Treaty Debates" by Professor Michael Laffan and Special Guests including Dr. Mel Farrell and opened with a speech from Tánaiste, Leo Varadkar. It's something that goes right to the core of Brexit particularly the Northern Ireland Protocol which built on the all Anglo-Irish talks and agreements that have occurred since 1921 - maybe Fine Gael or Michael Laffan will include you for 'considered briefing purposes' - if it's of further interest?
Thank you for these thoughts.. much appreciated. I am not sure I could make the event on 7th Jan but I will try to get on the Fine Gael list for future events. If you could suggest a contact my direct email is philip@philipstephens.net
Riddle me this.... why should 50% +1 in favor of unity be regarded as “not bestowing legitimacy” on UI, but 50%+1 in favor of staying in the UK would be totally legit?
Thank you Martin...much appreciated!
Excellent column. I wish it was in the FT!
Thank you...I have corrected the date