Doing the right things….but not well enough

The cacophony of criticism surrounding Keir Starmer's first year counts the theatre of politics above the direction of policy

It’s over. Reviews of Keir Starmer’s first year read nothing so much as a political obituary. The prime minister has flunked it. He is weak, inept, and lacks charisma. The far-right populists represented by Nigel Farage’s Reform party have stolen a lead in the opinion polls. The Labour government that swept to office in 2024 is now in the waiting room for defeat in 2029.

As far as I can tell the verdict is near universal among the Westminster cognoscenti. John Curtice, who holds himself the doyen of the nation’s pollsters, intones that no other prime minister has had such a disastrous opening year. Chris Mason, the BBC’s political editor, has developed a studied funereal tone for broadcasts from Downing Street. Farage’s dog-whistle racism and economic populism is picking up votes among the disgruntled in Labour heartlands. The old left, never shy of crying betrayal at its own leaders, threatens a rolling rebellion.

It scarcely helped that the Starmer’s first anniversary was marked by an embarrassing House of Commons U-turn in the face of Labour backbench opposition to proposed cuts in welfare spending. This was not, it is fair to say, the prime minister’s finest moment. The proposed package was rushed through under pressure from the Treasury. And party management is not his forte. A last-minute retreat avoided a parliamentary defeat, but not the humiliation of a sizeable rebellion.

And yet. The cacophony presents a puzzle. Much as Starmer is judged to be doomed, there are precious few calls from his critics for a radical change of course.

The government has undoubtedly made mistakes - notably in fashioning too tight a fiscal straitjacket to allow for the shocks of an uncertain world. But overall, it has restored the economic stability so casually jettisoned by the Conservatives. Its (albeit overcautious) rapprochement with the European Union will salve some of the economic self-harm inflicted by Brexit.

Unlike its predecessor, it takes a serious approach to governing. Britain now has an energy policy, a plan to modernise the transport system and a strategy to meet the commitments to net zero. A big injection of funds into the NHS is to be accompanied by a programme to improve productivity. There is no easy way to halt the flow of irregular migration, but there are tangible signs that the Home Office is taking a grip.

Business, of course, did not like the hefty increase in National Insurance Contributions demanded by the Treasury’s efforts to balance fiscal probity with higher public spending. On the other hand, after more than a decade of Tory neglect, it welcomes a hefty injection of investment in the nation’s vital infrastructure; likewise the loosening of planning restrictions and a sensible strategy to support the industries of the future. The consultancy Deloitte reports that leading businesses now rank Britain above America, Japan and Europe as an investment destination.

Foreign policy also falls on the plus side of the ledger. Starmer has normalised relations with the EU, been adroit in handling Donald Trump and stalwart in support for Ukraine’s war against Russian aggression. He looks comfortable in international company. Defence policy has waved goodbye to the “Global Britain” fantasies of Boris Johnson and his Brexiter chums. Security has been re-anchored in Europe.

Emmanuel Macron’s state visit and address to a joint session of parliament this week was a reminder how far Britain has travelled since Johnson’s successor Liz Truss said she could not decide whether the French president was friend or foe. A series of deals to move Britain closer to its EU neighbours economically as well as politically, will not reverse the damage done by Brexit, but it will help. The country is not yet in the right frame of mind to rejoin the EU.

If Starmer has troubles, the flailing Kemi Badenoch must envy them. The Tories have still to recover from the shock of last year’s cataclysmic defeat. They spend most of their time chasing votes lost to Farage. The party condemns Labour’s tax increases, but signals it will retain its big increases in the NHS budget. It would commit to spend still more on defence. Missing is any clue how it would pay for it. That’s the route back to the borrow-or-bust Trussonomics that dealt the coup de grace to the last Conservative government. Badenoch is lost, too busy fighting gender wars to think about how to govern.

None of the above is to suggest that Starmer merits an A+ for his first year. The political missteps have been real and, one way or another, the chancellor Rachel Reeves will have to find a way to loosen her self-imposed fiscal straitjacket. On the other hand, the critics’ memories are short. The government’s inheritance was a wrecked economy and a public realm laid waste by 14 years of Conservative rule. Fixing things will take time. All in all, B- would be a fair assessment.

The charge sheet against Starmer is about political performance rather than policy direction. The prime minister, it seems, is doing roughly the right things but not well enough. A media more interested in breathless commentary about Downing Street intrigue than casting a sharp eye over policy is unforgiving. The BBC could once be relied on for a more balanced picture. Now it joins the press in concentrating on the Punch and Judy politcs of Westminster.

Starmer will never set pulses racing. And political theatre does matter. His failure has been to tell an overarching “story” that gives definition to his hopes for the nation’s future. But to imagine that an administration with a House of Commons majority of more than 160 and four years yet to run can be written off because it is trailing in today’s opinion polls is more than eccentric.

When Britain passes judgment on Starmer in 2029 it will be on the basis of the health of the economy, living standards and the condition of the health service. Exciting as they may seem to the Westminster crowd, Downing Street in-fighting and backbench knockabout have only limited traction with voters when the choice really counts.

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