16 Comments

Not long,it seems.

Expand full comment

Looks like the Truss story is degenerating faster than I thought!

Expand full comment

Hard to 'like' but it's spot on. The UK has had a productivity problem for some considerable time caused by lack of investment both in capital and public infrastructure and in education plus an addiction to cheap vs efficient labour.

Expand full comment

I am starting to get a better idea about Truss.

Although it might seem as some have said that she is a weathervane, in fact I think she has some deeply held convictions particularly about economic policy. Although she'll change her mind on some items (such as the variation of pay outside of London), she is unlikely to show flexibility on the core of her beliefs, which as regards the economy is low taxation. So anything is good if it means less taxation.

One can imagine her views early last week on the forecasts of the recent Sterling decline as "well it probably will not happen, but if it does it'll be worth it anyway". And now she is probably doubling down in conversations. The downside to holding such firm views is the problem with blind spots, or as I think of it "key disaster" factors.

Expand full comment

Just another reason to be in the EU, to protect us from rogue Governments.

When we rejoin the EU, the EU will demand that do away with offshore tax-free accounts. So, it seems to me that a sensible quid pro quo now, for high end tax reductions is to do away with offshore banking, so that Tax is paid on all earnings.

Expand full comment

How long before Tory MPs catch on?

And the voters.

Expand full comment

They clearly hope so.....

Expand full comment

One way to interpret what appears to be an utterly irrational policy suite is that the purpose is simply to please moneyed Tory supporters and so to build up a huge war chest for the next election. Will that work in the UK?

Expand full comment

I hope not! And don't think so...

Expand full comment

I suppose that increased donations is a possible, maybe even likely outcome, although one should bear in mind that a number of Conservative Party donors were quite aligned with Johnson's policies, and Truss/Kwarteng are moving down a rather different road.

I feel that although a war chest is always useful, it's going to take more than that to win the next UK General Election, which is due at the latest in January 2025, a little over 2 years away. The UK is surely going to go through a very tough few quarters, and all that will be fresh in people's minds...

Expand full comment

That's what I would have thought. British voters are not so easily swayed by marketing. I hope this is correct.

Expand full comment

There is obviously an impact from cash (hence various peerages for example, and one could argue certain legislation, or the lack of), but nevertheless I think this will be a hard battle to win on PR.

Certainly it's a poor PR start - most people are facing hard times and Truss/Kwarteng have responded by committing to help with energy bills, but more explicitly with a budget that puts a lot of money in the pockets of the top few percent of UK tax payers. That will take a lot of spinning in 18 months; not sure it can be done successfully.

Expand full comment

I agree....

Expand full comment

Agreed..for most people this is going to be a bloody winter...

Expand full comment

You can't tax-cut a country to improved productivity.

As you explained it takes hard work, and likely a decade or more to show results. Not something today's politicians sign up for.

Expand full comment

"The Bank of England, already pushing up short-term borrowing costs to rein in inflation, has little choice but to raise rates higher."

As a friend of mine put it, when the two pilots in the cockpit pull in different directions, it rarely ends well.

Expand full comment