Reports of Keir Starmer's demise are much exaggerated

One thing we should have learned during the tumult of recent years is not to project the present into the future.

Am I the only one left? Let me own up. I don’t believe that the defeat of Keir Starmer’s government at the next general election is preordained. Worse, as things stand, Starmer still looks to me like the favourite to be the next prime minister. As for Nigel Farage, I think the chances of the Reform leader walking into 10 Downing Street are as close to zero as to make no difference. The chances of the Conservatives’ Kemi Badenoch are not a great deal better

I fear I may be repeating myself. It is not that long since I wrote that the barrage from the commentariat that greeted the first anniversary of Starmer’s arrival in office was, well, somewhat overdone. But since then the cacophony of criticism has become deafening. This is no surprise coming from The Telegraph, Daily Mail or for that matter, The Times. The hysteria, though, reaches beyond the natural supporters of Reform and the Tory right. If we are to believe the BBC, all that remains is to select the psalms for the prime minister’s requiem.

The government, it is true to say, is not in great shape. Peter Mandelson’s sacking as ambassador in Washington and Angela Rayner’s departure as Labour deputy leader are the latest in a string of mishaps. Given his track record, the choice of Mandelson always looked misjudged - though quite a few of the pundits now accusing the prime minister of terrible misjudgement said something rather different when he was appointed. Starmer cannot be blamed for Rayner’s failure to pay the right stamp duty, but her exit was a significant blow.

His premiership faces big policy challenges. Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, is trapped between her self-imposed fiscal rules, a weak economy, public services flattened by the long years of Tory austerity and Labour’s manifesto tax pledges. The government’s promise to break up the criminal gangs ferrying irregular migrants across the channel has yet to show results. Incomes are depressed. The voters, to put it mildly, are disgruntled. They have not forgiven the Conservatives, but are now showing their impatience for the change promised by Labour. One result is the rise in support we are witnessing for the nihilistic extreme right.

The opinion polls reflect the fragmentation. They show Reform has a strong lead with the support of about 30 per cent of voters. Labour has slumped to around 20 per cent and the Conservatives to nearer 15 per cent. Significant backing for the Liberal Democrats and the Greens, and Jeremy Corbyn’s plans for a populist party on the far left have generated much noise about two-party politics making way for the fracturing common in other European states. In the personality stakes, Farage, a politician with a rare talent to connect with “ordinary” voters, is far ahead of a prime minister prone to seem aloof..

The mood among Labour backbench MPs is said to “furious”, “toxic”, even “mutinous”. Taking their cue from the Conservatives’ last spell in office (five prime ministers in eight years), some talk of installing a new leader. In this environment everything and anything is blamed on Starmer, his No 10 team, or both. The leftist backbench MP Clive Lewis spoke to the hysteria when he roundly condemned the prime minister for a “political” cabinet reshuffle. Is there another type?

The curious assumption driving much of this is that the outcome of the next election will replicate the present polls. In reality, they are snapshots. The question put by pollsters is “how would you vote in a general election held tomorrow”. For their part, those responding know that there will not be an election tomorrow, next month, or next year. Britain has five-year parliaments and Labour a near 150-seat majority, so Starmer can wait until mid-2029. In short, today’s polls present all those angry voters with a cost-free opportunity to kick the government.

If we should have learnt anything from the tumult of the past few years it is that imagining that politics travels in straight lines is more than risky. In an era of geopolitical upheaval, national politicians are ever more a prisoner of what Harold Macmillan famously called “events”.

It is quite possible, of course, that the grievances driving the present surge in support for Reform will persist. Equally so that, when faced with a choice of prime minister voters will notice that Farage is selling snake oil. And who knows. Immigration levels may subside. The additional billions pumped into the NHS may make a difference. Likewise the tens of billions chanelled into investment in the nation’s crumbling infrastructure.

Britain’s political landscape is changing, not least in the implosion of the Conservatives and the rise of flag-waving English nationalists on the far right still more extreme than Reform. Traditional tribal loyalties have been weakening for some time. The two-party “mould” of British politics, though, is still buttressed by an electoral system that is merciless in its treatment of smaller parties.

A lead in the opinion polls is one thing. Translating it into seats in parliament is another. The distribution of the national vote share is critical. Labour demonstrated as much in 2024 by winning 411 of the 650 seats in the House of Commons with just 34 per cent of the vote. As things stand, Reform looks more likely to pile up votes in the wrong places. To win it has to step out of provincial Britain to take seats in the southern shires and in big cities - areas that have been turning left rather than right.

So yes, the government is in some difficulties. And, yes, Starmer struggles with the role of prime minister. But before debating the relative merits of Psalms 23 and 27, it is worth asking whether it sensible to project the present into the future.

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